Blunt.Pie

Let me share a clip of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz on yesterday’s CNN Newsroom, being interviewed by Rich Sanchez. After discussing the “Palin is no Hillary Clinton” angle, the real response that stood out for me begins at 1:21 of the video.

My emphasis added. That struck me and continues to strike me - because here’s my theory behind why McCain chose Palin. After looking across the landscape of the general election, John McCain and his campaign realized that their only hope of victory in the general is to go for a “three-peat”, where the election is driven by far-right turnout. Given the far-right’s general disdain for John McCain, he knew he had to pick a fundamentalist Christian in the mold that makes Dobson look mild.

This is a HUGE gamble on his part. It is inarguable (or only mildly arguable) at this point that the far-right delivered the first election for George W. Bush and then, rallied by ensoulment and fear of homosexuals, delivered a second term. 2008 isn’t 2000 or 2004, however. The Republican brand is tarnished to blackness. More importantly, Democrats are rising - not as quickly or with the margins we would all like to see, but they ARE rising. Most notable here is the distribution of Democratic-controlled state legislatures.

States where Democrats control both houses of State Legislatures:

Alabama
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia

States where Democrats and Republicans split Legislative Control

Delaware
Indiana
Kentucky
Michigan
Montana
Nevada
New York
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
Wisconsin

States where Republicans control both Legislative Houses

Alaska
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Missouri
North Dakota
Ohio
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

(Nebraska has a non-partisan legislature) (source)

The states that I’ve included in BOLD are the so-called battlegrounds. Yes, I realize that North Carolina is a stretch, but Ive kept it in there. Of those 14, only THREE have State legislatures solely controlled by Republicans. In the states with full or split Legislative control by Democrats, the ability of Republicans to drive wedge issues onto the ballot to drive far-right turnout is limited to non-existent.

This truly IS a “Hail Sarah” pass on McCain’s part. With a diminished ability to drive wedge issues onto the ballot, McCain seems to be counting on rabid support for Palin on the ticket to overcome in sufficient numbers the formulaic deficit that exists in 2008 but was present in 2000 and 2004. I think that’s a far stretch. Coupled with this is a tandem hope that a) non far-right women will vote Palin because she possesses a vagina; and b) non far-right voters generally won’t be paying attention to Palin’s lack of political experience.

So our targets are clear - and the good news is, our targets remain the same, notwithstanding the Palin pick. McCain’s strategy had been to tout “experience” and “ready to lead” to capture some moderate Democrats, disaffected Hillary Clinton voters, Independents, and moderate Republicans. He is, right now, closer to God - because he’s praying that these constituencies won’t notice the host of Palin’s very real, very relevant shortcomings.

The one thing I agree with John McCain on is that it truly is “Country First”. Where I disagree is that John McCain should be the one putting the slogan forward as its operating principle. Daily Kos diarists have done an excellent job of starting the relevant opposition research.

In my humble opinion, given what I laid out above, we need to STAY FOCUSED on turning out our own base, while amplifying our outreach to Independents and moderate Republicans. Our talking points should be as follows:

Sarah Palin Isn’t Ready To Be Commander In Chief.

- She has been Governor for 18 months of a state that ranks 47th in population. Only North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people to govern than Alaska.
- Prior to that, she was Mayor of Wasilla, Alaka for 6 years and sat on Wasilla’s City Council for 4 years. Wasilla’s 2005 population estimate is 8,471.
- Sarah Palin has no foreign policy experience. Physical proximity of Alaska to Russia doesn’t count.

Sarah Palin is woefully out of the mainstream in her views.

- She opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. Only 18% of Americans agree with her that it should be illegal in all cases (source).
http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm

- She opposes sex education in schools and is firmly behind abstinence-only programs (source).
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/01/palin-s-record-on-family-issues.aspx

69% of Americans think sex education in schools is very important, and 21% think its somewhat important (source - PDF, p. 6).
http://www.kff.org/newsmedia/upload/Sex-Education-in-America-General-Public-Parents-Survey-Toplines.pdf

- She supports the idea of “school choice”, or vouchers (source).
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/01/palin-s-record-on-family-issues.aspx

70% of Americans do NOT support vouchers when it means public school funding would be cut (source).
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/schoolvouchers_poll001017.html

- She supports teaching creationism in science classes (source).
http://www.ontheissues.org/Sarah_Palin.htm

- She is skeptical of global warming and doesn’t believe climate change is man-made (source).
http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/sarah_palin_vp/2008/08/29/126139.html

85% of Americans believe the planet is warming and a full 70% believe that it is attributable to either BOTH nature and man (49%) or solely to humans (21%) (source).
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1176975,00.html

Palin is hardly free of old-Washington influence and tactics.
http://www.adn.com/sarahpalin/story/511471.html

- She was FOR the Bridge to Nowhere, before she was against it (source).
http://www.adn.com/sarahpalin/story/511471.html

- She openly praises Hillary Clinton, but thinks Clinton is a “whiner” (source).
http://www.adn.com/sarahpalin/story/511471.html

- She is under investigation for ethics abuses in the firing of Alaska’s Public Safety Director (source - worth noting also that CNN just reported Palin has retained a lawyer on the same issue).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/01/palin-trooper-scandal-cou_n_122903.html

- She was director of Senator Ted Stevens’ PAC (source).
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/01/palin_was_a_director_of_embatt.html

It’s worth noting here also that Stevens himself is under indictment for 7 felonious counts.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sen-stevens-indicted-criminal-charges/story.aspx?guid=%7BF5DDE8D4-8FB6-42B2-96DB-84FD9CB0FAA4%7D&dist=msr_14

The rest of the things we’re talking about with respect to Palin? Interesting - and certainly gripping - within our own closed circle. But our message to the outside world on Palin - as we canvass, talk to voters, friends and colleagues - should remain consistent.

She’s not ready to lead.
She’s out of the mainstream.
She’s hardly free of “Old Washington” scandals and tactics.

I do believe this helps us influence the voters we need to ensure are our focus. We’ll NEVER get the religious right to vote for Barack Obama. That’s obvious. But we can use Palin’s substantive stances on real issues - issues that matter to average voters - to ensure we never have to find out how she fares in staring down Vladimir Putin or a nuclear-armed Pakistan.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/1/15300/83349/410/582341

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.